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WF

MODULE WF

Workload Forecasting

Visualization & Analysis Module (WF)

Forecasts workload from inbound and outbound volumes, past results, and external factors.

Forecast Results
Forecast ResultsA screen for reviewing forecast calculation results in detail.

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01About

Overview

From forecasts that rely on individual intuition to highly accurate AI workload forecasts.

Conceptual view of forecasting future workload from work results and informing staffing and delivery plans
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WF forecasts future workload with high accuracy from past work results (training data), calendar information (events), and reference information (explanatory variables), and optimizes staffing and delivery plans.

Three Challenges WF Solves

  1. Person-dependent workload forecasts

    Forecasts depend on the intuition and experience of veteran staff. When those staff transfer or leave, accuracy drops sharply, and overstaffing and understaffing become frequent.

  2. Inefficient labor costs

    Missed forecasts raise overtime pay, add the cost of last-minute temporary staff, or waste labor costs on surplus staff.

  3. Slow response to volume swings

    With volume swings from sales, seasonal changes, and day-of-week patterns, the accurate workload is not known until the day before or the day itself, so staff cannot be assigned properly.

02Workflow

Operational Flow

  1. 1

    Data comes in

    Past work results and calendar dataPast work results and calendar data

  2. 2

    Seen on screen

    Forecast workload and event/seasonal effectsForecasts and event/seasonal effects

  3. 3

    Spot issues

    Volume swings from sales and seasonsVolume swings from sales and seasons

  4. 4

    Take action

    Forecasts feed staff and delivery plansForecasts feed staff and delivery plans

  5. 5

    Results change

    Less overstaffing and understaffingLess overstaffing and understaffing

Seen on screen

The WF forecasting process has four phases: data accumulation → model building → forecast calculation → forecast vs. actual review.

  1. Phase 1

    Data Accumulation

    • Automatically pulls work results from the WMS
  2. Phase 2

    Model Building

    • Builds time series models with the Prophet algorithm
  3. Phase 3

    Forecast Calculation

    • Forecasts future workload with the selected model
  4. Phase 4

    Forecast vs. Actual Review

    • Automatically compares forecasts with actual results

The phases link automatically, forming a cycle that keeps improving forecast accuracy.

03Features

Key Features

  • Workload Forecast Calculation Results in Forecasting Engine (Prophet): a table of each forecast calculation's data group, model name, training period, and forecast days (demo screen)
    Workload Forecast Calculation Results

    Forecasting Engine: Prophet

    WF's forecasting engine uses Prophet, an open-source time series forecasting algorithm developed by Meta (formerly Facebook). It forecasts time series data with an additive model, separating and extracting trend, seasonality, and event effects to deliver highly accurate forecasts.

  • Automatic Tuning Across 24 Patterns

    WF builds a model for each of the 24 patterns produced by combining four tuning parameters, and automatically adopts the parameter set with the highest forecast accuracy. No manual trial and error is needed.

  • Same-Day Adjustment

    WF continuously feeds the day's order status into the system and adjusts forecasts in real time.

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Time Series Decomposition with Prophet

Prophet breaks time series data into the four components below and models each one independently, capturing complex volume patterns with high accuracy.

  • Trend

    Medium- to long-term increases and decreases. Captures underlying shifts in volume from business growth and market changes.

  • Yearly Seasonality

    Seasonal patterns over a one-year cycle. Regular yearly volume changes such as the year-end and New Year holidays, the summer and year-end gift seasons, and fiscal year-ends.

  • Weekly Seasonality

    Patterns that repeat by day of the week. Automatically learns weekday traits, such as high volume on Mondays and low volume on Wednesdays.

  • Event Effects

    Estimates the impact of each special event, such as sales, holidays, and campaigns, on volume.

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